Fantasy Drafthelp: Baseball Buy Low, Sell High

NOTE: These lists are predicated on our belief at FDH in regression to the mean (super-hot players will most often fall back to a range just above or below their most likely season projections) and progression to the mean (just the opposite for slumping players). Absent the injury factor, these truisms play out over the course of a 162-game season to a remarkable degree.

Fantasy Baseball Buy Low

^ Tommy Hanson: The adjustments he made on Saturday prove that he is on his way to ending his slump, and given his prodigious ability, you can’t wait much longer to get him at a reasonable price.

^ Dan Haren: If his sub-par numbers (by his excellent standards, that is) were really a matter for concern, then top contenders would not be sniffing around Arizona hoping for a deadline deal.

^ John Lackey: We are admittedly always big marks for this guy, but his most recent start shows that the other numbers may soon catch up to the shiny win total.

^ Derek Lee: If you’re going to buy low, then really get a player at rock bottom – and a televised throwdown with Carlos Zambrano fits that bill.

^ Adam Lind: We had him on our list last time and we’re keeping him there, because ’09 showed his upside and his owners have got to be desperate and beyond reason at this point.

^ Nick Markakis: His drought has been power-only, and shows signs of abating, which makes him potentially very valuable with his contact rate.

^ Joe Mauer: We’ve never been high on his power potential (notwithstanding an ’09 that looks more like a fluke every day), but this low rate is unsustainable as well.

^ Mark Teixeira: He’s on this list just about every year at this point and always lights it up past that point.

Fantasy Baseball Sell High

^ Brennan Boesch: Nothing in his minor-league record pointed to this type of insane production, so be ready for it to end at any point.

^ Marlon Byrd: Of his gaudy numbers, a good many of them came early in the season, so he’s already on the way back to earth.

^ Jon Garland: Success in his career has only ever been sporadic – don’t believe.

^ Carl Pavano: It’s possible that this season simply represents the culmination of a long comeback from Tommy John surgery, but that belief also represents a decent risk – especially if you have a chance to take your profit from him.

^ Andy Pettitte: More than a run better than his career ERA at age 38? Oooooohkay.

Read More

Fantasy Drafthelp: Baseball Buy Low, Sell High

BUY LOW

^ Adam Lind: The top AL OF on the 2010 draft board heading into the season has bottomed out and looks ready to resume his ’09 role as the anchor of the Toronto offense.

^ Justin Masterson: This may seem like a strange one, but once his awful performance as a starter gets him pushed back to the bullpen where he belongs, he should serve as a valuable setup man in deeper leagues.

^ Wandy Rodriguez: Aside from his win total, which should remain low pitching for that putrid team, his other numbers should improve as they have been disproportionately affected by a few poor performances.

^ Mark Teixeira: His poor start has lingered longer than usual, leading to a greater likelihood that a frustrated owner could cut bait and make you very lucky indeed.

^ Javier Vazquez: Much like Masterson, this designation is predicated on a move, although in his case it would be back to the National League where he belongs once the Yankees finish deciding that they can’t afford his gas can every fifth day.

^ Matt Wieters: The defensive strides he wanted to make so desperately – the ones that would not come as easy – have come, leaving him now to focus again on his amazing offensive upside.

SELL HIGH

^ Adrian Beltre: How strong, exactly, is your conviction that he is for real right now?

^ Doug Fister: No pedigree, no strikeouts, no reason to believe.

^ Vladimir Guerrero: With his body having been so beaten-up in recent years, do you really think he can sustain his career-best pace?

^ Livan Hernandez: Fortunately, the fade we predicted in our last installment has begun – but not in a way that dampens his still-sweet overall numbers noticeably, so you still have time.

^ Tim Hudson: The last three seasons provide a pretty good roadmap of where he’s likely to end up – which is not wildly worse than where he’s at now, but it is definitely worse, providing an opportunity to take some profit if you can move him at his present perceived value.

^ Shawn Marcum: He’s in his first year back from Tommy John surgery and looking dominant thus far, but he’s also winging it for a team playing well above its head. So there’s two reasons to play it safe.

^ Jeff Niemann: He’s not missing many bats for a pitcher purported to be a full-blown late bloomer.

Read More

Fantasy Baseball: Hot Pickups and Drops

Also at The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog.

Fantasy Baseball Hot Pickups

NOTE: These players are the hottest waiver wire pickups currently in CBS Sports leagues.

^ Juan Cruz (from 8 to 40% ownership, +32): Saves are a hot commodity, no matter how short-lived the opportunity may be. Cruz has been red-hot, but he won't take the job from RP Soria long-term, but here's another but: Soria will probably be babied when he gets back this time. So, long story short, Cruz can only really help over the next few weeks.

^ Matt Palmer (from 4 to 35% ownership, +31): A classic late-bloomer, Palmer is making the most of his opportunities in the depleted Angels' rotation. There's no reason to believe that he'll be relegated to the bullpen even when the team's DL empties.

^ Shairon Martis (from 16 to 44% ownership, +28): At 5-0, with no discernable reason to believe in him before this year nor present stats that indicate that he's anything more than a product of great run support, he's a classic rearview mirror acquisition.

^ Luke Hochevar (from 20 to 46% ownership, +26): A noted elite prospect for the past couple of years, fans were desperate to believe that he would produce for real once given his latest opportunity -- and then he got shelled. Don't put your faith in him at this stage of the game.

^ Brett Cecil (from 12 to 31% ownership, +19): This youngster is off to a hot start in the bigs as part of a pitching staff that is hitting on all cylinders. With his superlative surroundings (at the moment, anyway), he is an excellent pickup at least until his first time around the league comes to an end.

^ Juan Pierre (from 35 to 52% ownership, +17): Manny's pain is the fast guy's gain. He's starting to make the most of his second chance in SoCal and steals remain a (somewhat) rare commodity. Jump on his bandwagon if you can.

^ Matt Harrison (from 8 to 25% ownership, +17): He could well be a classic late-bloomer, given his minor-league pedigree. His home ballpark will get much tougher once the North Texas humidity kicks in, but enjoy his hot streak at least for now.

^ Jorge De La Rosa (from 9 to 25% ownership, +16): He's been good, but not great, and will have every opportunity to avoid being exiled to the bullpen as part of this awful rotation. Consider him a decent lower-end option.

^ Barry Zito (from 40 to 55% ownership, +15): Ah, Sabean's Folly! He had to rally pretty well over the past several weeks just to get to his present numbers (3.89 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). There's not a lot of room for growth left there, as his most recent start proved.

^ Nick Johnson (from 27 to 41% ownership, +14): He's putting up nice numbers, but the next DL stint is only a matter of when, not if (the reason his ownership level remains so low notwithstanding his upside). If you can add him on the cheap, ride him until he breaks down again.

^ Jerry Hairston (from 3 to 17% ownership +14): He's on a tear, has speed and can play at SS and OF in most leagues. As a spare part, what's not to like?

^ Michael Cuddyer (from 21 to 34% ownership, +13): Cuddyer has had production that is decent, but nothing to write home about, so don't get carried away with him.

^ Willy Taveras (from 40 to 52% ownership, +12): It's probably not too late to get in on his hot streak, which as always features plenty of steals, but once he invariably cools off, don't presume he'll be getting at-bats every day in that volatile outfield.

^ Andrew Bailey (from 30 to 42% ownership, +12): It's a wonderful life for Bailey owners these days! Uh, sorry about that. As a likely closer-in-waiting, he's a great pickup and he is also very useful in deeper leagues that place a premium on outstanding middle relievers.

^ Eric Stults (from 16 to 28% ownership, +12): With the depth of options that will be available in LA as the year rolls on and the likelihood that he's been pitching over his head most of the way thus far, he's another apparent rearview miror pickup.

Fantasy Baseball Hot Drops

NOTE: These players are the biggest waiver wire drops currently in CBS Sports leagues.

^ Phil Hughes (from 74 to 47% ownership, -27): Dropped in 27% of leagues? We had no idea that that Steinbrenner family had that many fantasy baseball franchises among them! Granted, after a promising start he has regressed sharply, but the Yanks don't have that many candidates for an internal upgrade (nor that many potential trading chips at the moment). Unless you're in a league that doesn't allow you to reserve or bench anyone, you'd have to have your head examined to bust a hot slug in him before the Yanks do.

^ Jonathan Sanchez (from 60 to 47% ownership, -13): He's had three awful starts in a row, but had a nice run prior to that. People, a little more "steady as she goes" would do many of you a world of good with some of your young starting pitchers. The fact that FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris held onto Matt Harrison long enough to benefit from his current production proves that we practice what we preach. Now, Sanchez may well be suffering a crisis of confidence that could and should lead to severe downgrades, but he seems like a classic "panic sale" at this point.

^ Brandon Morrow (from 78 to 66% ownership, -12): Downgraded from closer? Yeah, dump him posthaste.

Read More

Fantasy Baseball: Buy Low/Sell High/Hold Onto

Also at The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog.

FANTASY BASEBALL BUY LOW
^ Matt Holliday: He probably went for an artificially low price in the first place (because of urban legends that he was brutal away from Coors Field) and this start is playing into false stereotypes – presenting a great opportunity if you can find a panicked owner.
^ Brandon Phillips: Buy now before he warms up along with the Ohio River humidity.
^ James Loney: He will hit no less than 15-20 home runs and now that power will be compressed into 80% of the season.
^ Francisco Liriano and Chris Young (SP): They’ve shown enough sparks this year to show that ace power is still lurking in those arms.
^ CC Sabathia: He thrives in under-the-spotlight midseason games and those are rapidly approaching.

FANTASY BASEBALL SELL HIGH
^ Aaron Hill: He’s a microcosm of the Toronto offense and as such, he can’t sustain his early level of production.
^ Jason Bartlett and Ryan Theriot: Classic early-season frauds.
^ Brandon Inge and Mike Cameron: Career-long hole-in-the-swing guys are never an early bet based purely on a hot start.
^ Raul Ibanez: In order to place him off-limits, you’d have to commit to believing that he’s going to have a career year.
^ Zack Duke: Be very cautious based on his start-and-stop career.

FANTASY BASEBALL HOLD ONTO
^ Mike Napoli: With strong per-at-bat power numbers last year, we touted him coming into 2009, so we’re going to hold to our opinion that he’s for real.
^ Justin Verlander: The worst (of ’08 and early ’09) is behind him, now reap the rewards for betting on the talent.
^ Adam Lind and Johnny Cueto: Based on pedigree, you should proceed as if they are for real.
^ Josh Johnson: The only question with him was health; behold what happens when he’s healthy!
^ Chris Volstad: Based on last year and this year’s start, he projects as no worse than a #3 SP the rest of the way.
^ Zack Greinke: You could get a lot for him – but it’s unlikely that you’ll get as much as he’ll still give you.
^ Rickie Weeks: He’s a classic potential post-hype breakout.
^ Adam Jones: He’ll reach All-Star level sometime soon; feel free to believe that it’s happening sooner than expected.

Read More

Fantasy Baseball: Buy Low

Also at The FDH Fantasy Newsletter at the FantasyDrafthelp.com blog.

NOTE: You’ll notice that we aren’t listing three high-profile pitchers in this mix: Fausto Carmona, Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander. Not everyone who is off to a slow start is a good candidate for this list. There appear to be unresolved issues with these pitchers at this point, and while all looked like decent bets to put the demons of ’08 behind them, it would be irresponsible to assume that they merit paying a high or even moderate price to acquire right now. Of course, as always our advice is not delivered in a vacuum, so if somebody in your league is conducting an absolute fire sale on any of these three, then by all means take a flyer on them.

^ Mark DeRosa: Given his tri-eligibility in 20-game leagues this year, he was probably much cheaper than he should have been in many drafts – so owners disgusted by his slow start may not be as attached to him since he may not have cost that much.

^ Adrian Beltre: He generally picks up as the season progresses, so if an owner in your league is ready to bust a cap in him, be in the right place at the right time.

^ JJ Hardy: He was pretty streaky last year as well, but he produced at a super-high level when hot. Buy him now at a low ebb if you can and just wait for him to carry your team when he gets hot.

^ Jake Peavy: Until and unless word surfaces about arm issues, don’t worry about this money pitcher. Throughout his career, he has had a few ugly starts interspersed here and there, so don’t sweat this mediocre start.

^ Jeremy Guthrie: He’s another pitcher who can be a bit up-and-down, so this point in time would be perfect for acquiring his services.

^ Randy Johnson: He’s shown enough this year, in an extreme pitcher’s park, to at least merit consideration as an end-of-the-rotation starter should he be available in your league.

Read More