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Showing posts with label Tim Duncan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Duncan. Show all posts

One Half Shapes The Future For Two Franchises

As the buzzer sounded for the end of the first half during the fourth game between Memphis and San Antonio, the Grizzlies players headed into the locker room with a two-point deficit. They understood the ramifications if they were to lose this one; a trip back to Texas with the series tied.

Most teams would buckle under the pressure of trying to pull off a big upset over the top seed, especially when comparing the two franchise’s roster experience in the postseason. The core of San Antonio have been together for nearly a decade and have already accumulated numerous championships in that span, while Memphis has only four players on their roster who have actually played during the playoffs.

With those credentials, the smart bet would be on the Spurs to even up the series and the Grizzlies to falter in the second half.

Unfortunately for Tim Duncan and his pals, Memphis didn’t care about the odds.


In one of the most stunning halves of play in NBA playoff history, Memphis came out swinging by converting countless big shots and swarming San Antonio with shut down defense that created hordes of uncharacteristic turnovers by, arguably, one of the savviest teams in recent memory. Once the middle of the fourth quarter hit and a twenty point deficit stood before them, all Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Richard Jefferson could do was sit on the bench and stare dumbfounded out at the hardwood court before them as their reserves finished up the game.




By the time the horn sounded for the end of the game, Zach Randolph, Mike Conley, and Marc Gasol huddled the rest of their team together for their end game, informal team meeting with their raucous and boisterous home crowd shrieking proudly behind them over their win.

Although both teams will go back to San Antonio no matter what the outcome of game four was, that second half changed the outlook of the series and possibly the future of both franchises.

When the seeding for the playoffs were set, it appeared to be a cakewalk for the Spurs. The Grizzlies were a young team that was missing their best player in Rudy Gay and appeared to have insufficient personnel to take on the deep and experienced number one seed in the Western Conference. Just getting a win would be victory enough for a franchise that entered the 2011 NBA Playoffs without ever winning at home in their postseason history.

Now, Memphis has become the hunter and the Spurs are the defenseless prey hoping to somehow evade their now inevitable demise. The Spurs would be the first top seed to get knocked in the first round by an eighth seed since the Warriors beat the top seeded Mavericks in 2007.


Along with a humiliating first round defeat would be the probability that this is most likely the dynasty’s last round of dominance.

With Duncan’s output declining rapidly at the age of 35 and Ginobili’s body breaking down, another title run after this season appears highly unlikely. Teams like Oklahoma City, Chicago, Miami, and Memphis have core players that are entering the prime of their careers in their mid twenties. It would only be a matter of time before the Spurs would be leap-frogged over by other up-and-coming dynasties.

Along with the aging veterans, there doesn’t appear to be an answer as to who will lead this team back to prominence in the future. Although five of the key players are under the age of 28 (Parker (28), Gary Neal (26), Tiago Splitter (26), George Hill (24), and DeJuan Blair (22), aside from Parker, they are only role players who have nowhere near the pedigree or the potential their elder counterparts had at their age.

To put it blatantly: don’t expect the Spurs to come into the Western Conference as the number one seed anytime soon again.

On the flip side, the second half in game four can be a jumping off point for a possible, future dynasty in Memphis.

If anything, those 24 minutes could be the blueprint for their future. They exemplified a team that would never give up, always work hard, and wouldn’t buy into the hype of playing a higher seed. Those are qualities that are not easy to teach such an adolescent squad and harder to maintain when a team is put in a spot they have never experienced before.

For many franchises with a similar roster to the Grizzlies (they have ten players under the age of 26 and only one player over the age of 30), getting a lead on a veteran team and being one win away from their first playoff series can be the start of something bigger down the road. Even if they somehow lose this series, expect this to be a great learning experience in how to be a contender in future postseasons.

One great example is examining the two number eight seeds from the 2010 Playoffs.

The Chicago Bulls entered the Eastern Conference as the last seed and made the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Their young core never experienced the postseason before and relished every moment of it, even though they were bounced out in five games by Cleveland. They rode last year’s experience to become the overall top seed in the East this season and recently took out Indiana to advance into the second round.

On the other side of the bracket is the Oklahoma City Thunder, who were the last team to clinch a Western Conference playoff berth in 2010. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook’s squad was a young team at the time and got their team to the postseason for the first time since they were the Seattle Supersonics in 2005. They pushed the Lakers to six games before they were eventually defeated. Determined to use that series as a building block for their future, they entered the 2011 NBA playoffs as the fourth seed and are now one win away from being a second round team.

Those examples should prove helpful for Memphis as they go forward building a contender.

No matter what happens at the conclusion of this series, the second half of game four will forever live in infamy for both franchises as the turning point in their futures

Sporadic Era-tic: The Death of the Superfriends

Blowing in the Wind, originally uploaded by awonderfulsplash.

Worry not, dear friends! The Superfriends meme is not dead. It just falls to this lonely spore to wind the clock of change and paradigm. Someone has to declare something dead after all this talk of viral this video and viral that, hashtag trending moments in the blistering web-spun online sun. Our eyes can only be hosts to these ghosts of existence for so long.

So, existence versus non-existence tonight. I declare death to the Superfriends not because they do not exist and/or will not soon come to proliferate. I only offer that such a means to overcoming the mean streets of mediocrity must at some point come to be judged as either viable or f(l)ailing. I recognize it's early in the NBA season, but a verdict must be passed such that all other verdicts may be measured, consciously or collective-subconsciously, upon its wavily inconsistent metaphorical shores.

Sorry, a little rusty here. I offer, in return for your patience and persistence and co-pre-cognizance with me, an alternative.

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh: These are the new figureheads of the Superfriends mold. Amar'e, CP3, 'Melo: These are the leaders of the new, if new be someday told. Right now, the verdict is out on the ledge like hot pie charts waiting for sticky fingered nerds to reach out and grasp at the pretense of truth. And who's the early boy playing Worms: Battle Islands? I'll give you a hint: it's not the eight-and-six Heat. Rather, I suggest you take a look at the twelve-and-eleven Spurs.


That's right, the wily vets, the geriatric section, divorcee's row, the leaders of the old, the Spurs currently hold the best win percentage in the league. How are they doing it? Not with an injection of new legs, because Tiago Splitter ain't doing diddly past six points and three pulls, and DaJuan Blair is the opposite of new legs. They're doing it with the same old system based around Tim Duncan and trickling down to the aforementioned soon-to-be divorcee Tony Parker, the finally healthy Manu Ginobli, and the revitalized Richard Jefferson.

So the Spurs are twelve-and-one. What's new, Nagamatsu? Why write about the difference in paradigms now? Because LeBron James affords us a unique perspective on the efficacy of Superfriends vs. San Antonio as models for building successful basketball teams. In Cleveland, King James was privy to a build similar to that of the Spurs, as was much bruited about when the two teams faced in the finals of '07. Under the careful build of Popovich acolytes Danny Ferry and Mike Brown, LeBron James saw a solid string of successful seasons. Now, having left the patronage of such system, he enters into something more akin to the 80's Laker Showtime teams under Pat Riley's baleful, pomaded watch.

Obviously, the Showtime teams weren't quite a Superfriends model. Perhaps I'm just saying that because they were successful and such a model would ruin my paradigm study. Still, those squads lacked the mercenary feel of such teams as the post-championship Rockets featuring Olajuwon, Drexler, and Barkley and/or Pippen, as I mentioned in my last epocrypha. What other unsuccessful Superfriends squads can we point to? Barkley's 76ers with Dr. J and Moses Malone, as well as Pippen's stint with the Jail Blazers both fit the bill. Dallas' multiple attempts at paving their way to super teams with the Mark Cuban's Benjamins failed, as did the '04 Lakers. (And I'm sure I'm forgetting a whole host of 'em)



Which brings us to the anomalies, the outliers as Malcolm Gladwell would put it. Sure, the '04 Lakers failed with Gary Payton and Karl Malone in tow, but realistically they should have won. Statistically, they should have won. Only Malone's injury kept them from dominating that series. And then Shaq left, and who knows. But what about the current, contemporary version of the Lakers? Isn't that a four-headed beast with Kobe, Pau, Lamar, and Artest? In short, yes. This current iteration is what one might term a "Superfriends" squad. However, what separates them is the system. Phil Jackson's "trust your players to fall or fly when they most need your trust" system is one of a kind. As a Lakers fan, I am petrified at the thought of trying to get that seventh in my watching career without the Zen Master. Here's the other thing: Until recently, this system was not one that played nice with the Superfriends mold. In the first three-peat, the team swallowed stars whole and left them barely shells of role players. Glen Rice, Mitch Richmond, Isaiah Rider. All three were eaten up and spit out by the '00-'02 Lakers.

The other outlier? The '08 Boston Celtics. There's a team that fit the Superfriends mold to a T. What sets them apart is Ubuntu. They had an identity from the start. Furthermore, the team's looking more and more like a Spurs team built around Rondo. But that's a side note. San Antonio is not the only team prospering under the Popovich Spurs paradigm. The 10-2 New Orleans Hornets (3rd highest win percentage in the league right now) are newly adapting themselves to the model under Popovich pupil Monty Williams. Similarly, the 10-4 Oklahoma City Thunder have followed Sam Presti in making Durant their Duncan and building down from there.


Pencil Vs Camera - 19, originally uploaded by Ben Heine.

What tic should you take away from all this? What should you allow to syphon blood from your Superfriend-like excessive thoughts? Let's just say the Lakers have Zen, the Celts have Ubuntu, what do the Heat have?

NBA Top 50: You Can't Teach Height (No. 5-7)


OtB is counting down the days 'til the NBA 2009-10 season tips off by ranking the top 50 players in the league. The season starts tomorrow!

Number 7: If healthy, all retina attached and what not, then this should be a big season for Ama're Stoudemire. He wanted to be in the MVP talk last season and most certainly wasn’t. With Alvin Gentry at the helm for the entirety of this year, and the Big Cactus taking his scrabble skills to Cleveland, perhaps this is Ama're’s year. The team didn’t make a lot of changes, so expect for them to struggle to make the playoffs again while being at least a little more exciting this year. Sure, you can’t really rely on STAT, but you also can’t rely on him not ripping you to shreds as he comes thundering down the lane. In the past, he's come back strong from missing a ton of games, so I'm betting on him a bit this season. The leadership is in place in Phoenix (Nash, Grant Hill, Louis Amundson) for him to really succeed. Past years have seen him play a little distractedly, and I think this year he'll able to get over that. Ama're was sixth last year, maybe I should stop betting on him. Then again, six meant more last year than it does this year, when I feel a lot of the top guys are coming in a little low energy.

Number 6: 2008-2009 wasn't a bad season for the Big Fundamental. Not an outstanding one either, in terms of Duncan outstandingness. His ranking was half this last offseason. The team seemed to be more Tony Parker’s team this season. Tim Duncan’s still one of the greatest playing today, but this team has had questions since Parker won the MVP in the ’07 playoffs. This team desperately needs an infusion, and Richard Jefferson is not it. One might argue a double standard here with Duncan and one or two of the guys above him. Shouldn’t the age factor in my rankings put him lower? In stating such an argument, you’d be correct and justified. In talking about the best of the best, I feel it’s important to consider their general irreplaceability. Over the next five to ten years, Kevin Durant has to be considered more valuable than Duncan to a team.


It’s seemed for years like Duncan’s time was coming, and 08-09 saw him steer clear of really big injuries, which may not be the case for long. Still, I’d argue the top 9 guys on this list are guys who you would shuffle around your roster to acquire. This is the old Bill Simmons argument. If the Spurs called up the Thunder and asked to trade Duncan for Durant straight up, the Thunder would consider it for half a second. If the Thunder made the same offer, though, the Spurs would laugh them out of the league. They would laugh before they even picked up the phone and heard what the Thunder were calling about. Of course, no one would hear of it, because it’s the Spurs. Still, Duncan gets the nod for now. Can franchise players like this plummet down the charts and become trade bait? Ask Hakeem Olajuwon how Raptor purple felt. Durant may enter these ranks with this season’s work. Duncan’s been here forever.

Number 5: Dirk Nowitzki is the one guy on this list who hasn't changed spots at all. The German has perhaps gotten lost in the shuffle since the unfortunate 05-06 and 06-07 seasons when he and the Mavericks were on top of the league. Just for the record, by the way, the MVP has been becoming a retrospective award since he won it in 06-07, as he actually had a more huge-angous season in 05-06. As Kobe should’ve won it in 04-05, thus allowing Lebron to win it in 07-08, but that's how the dominoes fall. Anyway, I know we try tend away from stats here at OtB, but Dirk’s are irresistible for last season. Not only did he score more points per game last season than he has since 05-06 (25.9, good for 4th in the league, which he also hit for in 05-06), but he did it at a higher clip (24.7 points per 36 minutes) and while making up more of his team’s offense than he ever has in his career (30.3% usage rate).


Sure, some of Dirk's stats were down, but after being forced to take this summer off by Mark Cuban, he’ll be well rested. Besides, he made the all NBA first team again after dipping to 2nd team status in 07-08, which I guess means putting him in my top 5 is not such a revelation. Still, his Mavericks team last year were overachievers, mostly attributable to his and Jason Terry’s terrific seasons (and huge workloads). Hopefully the acquisition of Shawn Marion will help keep Dirk Diggler fresh.

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