Week One in the NFL typically is known as, well, week one.
Most teams are not defined by the opening game regardless of how they do. Players and coaches will usually stand in front of the press and digress that this is only the beginning with more football left to be played.
But is week one really just week one?
Surely for other sports, opening day doesn’t define the rest of the season.
If this year’s Miami Heat lost their opening game, the humiliation would be magnified throughout the public. Yet, that microscope focusing on the loss would be removed quickly with 81 other possible victories ahead of them.
The 2010 New York Yankees came out the gates with a loss to their nemesis, the Boston Red Sox. 88 wins and 58 losses later, the squad appears to be headed to the postseason.
Despite other sports having little emphasis on opening day, football is on a separate island when it comes to the importance of the first week.
With only a sixteen game season and one game played a week, the inability to win a game becomes a huge setback for a team. The only thing worse than losing a game during the football season is losing the very first game of the season.
This is especially true when looking at the trend for playoff teams from the seasons before.
In the past two seasons, at least four playoff teams from the season before have lost in the first week. Of those first week losers, more than half of the teams were unable to reach the playoffs.
During the 2008 opening week, playoff teams from the previous season (Indianapolis, San Diego, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Washington) all suffered losses. Only Indianapolis and San Diego were able to bounce back and make the playoffs again that season while the other four teams became spectators.
In 2009, the opening week showcased losses for previous playoff teams (Tennessee, Miami, Carolina and Arizona). Of the teams who lost, only one rebounded and returned to play in the postseason (Arizona).
This season, seven of last year’s playoff teams lost their opening games (Minnesota, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Dallas, New York Jets and San Diego). If history is doomed to repeat itself, at least four of these teams will not be playing in January for a chance at the Super Bowl.
While some playoff teams from last year are off to a bad start, another trend was going on in most of the games: teams who couldn’t resist throwing the ball a lot.
Many teams tried to win the game by putting mileage on their quarterback’s arm. The only problem for most of those teams was that throwing the ball over and over most likely cost them the game.
Within all the games from the first week, fifteen of those teams aired the ball out at least 35 times in their games. Of those teams, only five were able to come away with victories.
While Baltimore, New Orleans, New England and Chicago were able to win by throwing at least 35 times, San Diego, Oakland, Cleveland and Carolina were not so lucky despite having the same number of throws.
What is even more interesting are the other seven teams who threw 40 or more passes. Only Arizona beat out their opponents while throwing over 40 times. Dallas, San Francisco and Atlanta all lost with 40 or more attempts. Indianapolis, St. Louis and Cincinnati threw at least 50 attempts and they all lost as well.
The first week of football is usually only that; just the beginning of a long, hard-hitting season that lasts through the winter and culminates at the grandest game of them all, the Super Bowl. Evaluating the team in the first week is usually difficult to envision.
Although a team can’t judged by the first week, it can definitely be a visual for things to come.
Opening Week In The NFL: Historical Playoff Implication Trends And Over Use Of The Pass
