We here at Outside the Boxscore had a rather lackluster NFL prediction period during the regular season going into the playoffs. (59% pick percentage in the regular season and 3-7 in the playoffs) Well, let's be honest, Chris Berman and Bill Simmons didn't do that much better either.
Well, the big game is here and it's time to finally make the prediction but I figure the best way to figure out who is going to win is to look at the past.
I've read some so-called fans/bloggers/experts say that the Colts rushing attack/rushing defense needs to be better than average for them to win. I'm not a 100% proponent of that logic.
The last time that the Indianapolis Colts were in the Super Bowl, they had the 18th best rushing team and had the worst run defense in the National Football League. For this season, they had the worst run offense and had the 24th best run defense. Those numbers aren't eye-popping but I would say that they have little relevance in this Super Bowl similar to that last one.
Essentially, it comes down to Peyton Manning being Peyton Manning and if the Colts defense can shut down the highest scoring offense in the National Football League.
For the Saints, they essentially have to limit Peyton Manning and cause turnovers similar to what they did in the NFC Championship game against Brett Favre. My only real issue with the Saints is how do they respond in their first Super Bowl and the pressure of having to perform for an entire city.
That pressure might be enormous to overcome but it might also propel the Saints to the spotlight as well. It might be the biggest unknown in sports, does having the feel-good story give you the edge or does it hinder you?
Don't confuse this however, Drew Brees will play well in his first Super Bowl in the city that spurned him for some dude name Duante. I'm just not 100% sure that it will be enough for the Saints to hold the Lombardi Trophy.
Unlike most experts, I think this game will be a lower-scoring affair. Why is that? Well, looking back in Super Bowl history, the last three Super Bowls that were played in Miami had relatively high scores. What does that mean?
We are going to look at a game in the region of the 20's for both teams. It's just conventional wisdom that one of these affairs will be of the low-scoring variety in Miami. I also believe that both defenses will come out in the first half and play well with the focus being on the offenses for most of this week.
The X-Factor for this game has been trumpeted as Saints running-back Reggie Bush but I have some sinking feeling that it is going to be back-up Colts running-back Donald Brown. If we remember, Brown filled in solidly for Addai earlier in the season and if we recall, the Colts last Super Bowl win in Miami, back-up running-back Dominic Rhodes had a great game.
For the actual game, it's going to come down to a 4th quarter Peyton Manning drive for the win. If the Saints stop him, they will get the win but my sinking feeling that it will come down to this man:
Yep, the oldest man in Super Bowl history will kick the Colts to a Super Bowl win, let's just say from 39 yards out. (You heard it hear, first.)
Peyton Manning will receive the MVP and Colts head coach Jim Caldwell will be the first rookie head coach since 49ers head coach George Seifert to win a Super Bowl.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis Colts 27 New Orleans Saints 24
OTB Super Bowl XLIV Prediction
