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Upon hearing a friend observe that MLB pitching was down across the board this year, we decided to investigate.
Here’s the total MLB ERA through games of Saturday, May 23: 4.46.And here’s the total MLB ERA for last year: 4.32.
So … good call by our friend, right? Well, kind of. We dug a bit further. Check out the total MLB ERAs for all the other seasons this decade:
^ 4.46 in 2007
^ 4.52 in 2006
^ 4.28 in 2005
^ 4.46 in 2004^ 4.40 in 2003
^ 4.27 in 2002^ 4.41 in 2001
^ 4.76 in 2000
In looking at this, there’s an odd kind of effect where ERAs in 2008, 2005 and 2002 were lower than in surrounding seasons, a weird sort of once-every-three years phenomenon for which there is no rational explanation.
So what can be rationally discerned about this year’s numbers relative to recent seasons? It’s an article of faith, justifiably so, that hitting numbers get pumped up as the heat and accompanying humidity rise in areas such as Texas and the ‘Nati. In that light, it’s logical to expect ERAs in the swamp areas to continue to rise. Inasmuch as this ERA is basically in tune with what we’ve come to expect every two out of three years this decade, however, don’t look for it to rise much overall. This means that areas less affected by summer humidity – think places such as Seattle and Minnesota – are very likely to counteract what would otherwise cause a rise in the overall ERA.
Keep in mind, though, that we’ve only seen ¼ of the season play out thus far and that volatility could still ensue regarding the numbers. But the moral of the story seems to be that, yes, pitching is weaker than last year, but last year was an example of the occasional outlier that keeps popping up this decade.
Fantasy Baseball Pitching: 2009 vs. Recent Years
