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We first used this analogy two years ago when Jorge Posada was enjoying a ridiculous first half en route to his career season. In the perfect “Sell High” fantasy trade, you not only help your own team by leveraging great value for your departing player, you also hurt the opposing team by passing on to them a rapidly depreciating asset. We half-kiddingly cited the precedent of the Germans sending Lenin to Moscow in a boxcar to destroy the czar’s regime from within during World War I; ideally, the player’s inevitable regression to the mean will hurt the team acquiring the player, thus hurting their chances of blocking your path to the title.
Right now, we’ll tell you why Raul Ibanez represents another such opportunity for his owners.Through games of May 30, he had smacked a flabbergasting 17 HR in 178 AB. A full 9.6% of his AB ended up as round-trippers, signifying the hot streak to end all hot streaks. That is more than 2 ½ times his career pace.
Now, since Ibanez became a full-time player in 2002, he has averaged 576 AB in a season. What’s his career average for HR in a season? 22.
Oops.
OK, what’s his previous career high? 33.
Let’s back up a second. If he only reaches the career average of 22 this year – granted, a correction that seems pretty unlikely right now – he will average a “tidy” 1.3% of his AB resulting in HR, assuming he notches his career average of 576 AB. What if he reaches 33 HR? That would mean 4.0% of his remaining AB ending up in HR.
To put that last number in perspective, the years since 2002 have seen 3.8% of his AB result in HR. So for him to match his career HR high within a typical AB range, he would merely have to approximate the Raul Ibanez of 2002-2008.
If you dangle him right now, do you think that that is the Ibanez that your fellow owners think that they’ll be acquiring? We don’t think so either.
Granted, if this is a true career year for Ibanez, he is likely to continue to surpass his career HR pace, but that is a definite gamble. Are you sure that he’s more likely to continue to produce than somebody due for a PROGRESSION to the mean like BJ Upton? Remember, the long fantasy baseball season is all about surfing the waves that materialize over the course of a year. Take your profit in Raul Ibanez if the opportunity presents itself, benefit from the assets you receive in return and watch your trading counterpart wonder why the Ibanez from ’02-’08 is back.
Fantasy Baseball Sell High Case Study
