Fantasy Drafthelp: Last-Minute Baseball Tips

This week, we bring you last-minute baseball draft/auction tips from FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris.

At the end of any draft prep season, I always like to bring the focus back to the basics. Having had the auction for my keeper league on Saturday and the draft for my non-keeper league next Saturday, I can mix in my own perspectives to make my points even clearer.

^ Above all, stay focused on value above all else. You win by squeezing value more effectively than anyone else, period. It’s repetitive on our part, but I make no apologies for that, because it’s the sole non-negotiable element of your draft prep and it’s something that far too many people lose sight of at the worst times. Now, for those who are looking to scratch an excitement itch or don the wheeler-dealer garb, this may not be fun and fulfilling. As for me, I get my fun and fulfillment from winning (12-team mixed non-keeper league title last year, 20-team mixed keeper league title the year before). Hopefully it’s not seen as a jerk move to drop those credentials, because there is a point here. Even with the ’09 title, even being the one person in the league actively participating in the fantasy industry via the FDH brand, I was delighted to see on Saturday that I can still lurk in the weeds because my moves are boring and decidedly un-flashy relative to many of my competitors. And frankly, if I can still lurk at this point and not have the target on me that my flashier league-mates do, then I’ll always be able to since I will never change the playbook. Advantage, me. Let others try the attention-grabbing attempts to reinvent the wheel. Steady wins the race.

^ The previous point is not to suggest abandoning all efforts to find more effective means of accomplishing your goals – just to keep value in mind when doing so. I’ll furnish another example from Saturday’s auction. Top minor league players in our league get picked over well before they first make the bigs, due to the fact that you can hang on to them for up to 10 years with our format – which calls for five auction rounds, followed by a straight draft in which players can be procured for only $1. In recent years, not only are the top prospects snarfed up even before their minor league peaks in the draft rounds, they are also subject in many instances to insane bidding in the auction rounds. Truly, it is difficult to carry a player for a few years at $20 or above before they even make their major league debut, so I have tried at all costs to avoid this necessity. Although I tried to get some top minor league players in the draft rounds on Saturday, I was unsuccessful – so I went all-in on a strategy I have dabbled in before: I took five prospects who will be in this June’s draft, four college players and one high-school baller. Will they all pan out? Probably not; the burn rate on prospects is significant. But they’ve all got high ceilings and they won’t cost me an arm and a leg if I have to cut them. This was the kind of creativity we endorse.

^ Think about the specifics of your situation ahead of time as much as you can, not merely the league rules and parameters (one would hope you don’t need me to drill that part into your heads!), but any other relevant features. In the case of my auction, I familiarized myself with not only my cap number and needs going into Saturday, but those of all of my leaguemates so that I would know who my biggest threats were for the holes I had to fill. For this Saturday’s draft, my co-owner and I are able to spend the week contemplating the realities of our draft position (7 – and on a personal note, I really hate being 6^th or 7^th in a 12-team league since you can’t anticipate your next pick very well and that just bothers me) and the players most likely to drop to us in the early rounds. Look at the possibilities (including tendencies of your fellow owners, which I know very well in both of my leagues from many years of jousting with them) and just spend some time picking apart some options from different angles. For example, it’s no secret that FDH is higher on Tulow than most in the industry this year. He was critical to our title last year and given our competitors’ tendencies, we feel that we have a good shot to get him at 7. If we do, then we fill a need at the shallowest position and move on from there. If not, we’ll go with a Plan B or Plan C that we hatch during the week. Ruminate on all the angles. You wouldn’t be playing this game if you didn’t love it. Enjoy – and go take some caysh from your friends!

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Fantasy Drafthelp: Baseball Guide Preview

NOTE: These are some of the features to be contained in our annual fantasy baseball guide FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2011, which will be released March 11 on FantasyDrafthelp.com.

SLEEPERS

C: JP Arencibia, John Jaso

1B: Freddie Freeman, Adam Lind, Mitch Moreland

2B: Gordon Beckham, Sean Rodriguez

SS: Ian Desmond, JJ Hardy

3B: Pedro Alvarez, Chipper Jones, Pablo Sandoval, Danny Valencia

OF: Carlos Beltran, Tyler Colvin, BJ Upton, Will Venable

SP: Josh Beckett, Brett Cecil, Jhoulys Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson, Daniel Hudson, John Lackey, James McDonald, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Nolasco, Jake Peavy, Tim Stauffer, Brandon Webb, Travis Wood

CL: John Axford, Drew Storen

OVERVALUED PLAYERS

C: Russell Martin, Yadier Molina

1B: Derrek Lee

2B: Howie Kendrick

SS: Elvis Andrus, Astrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro, Marco Scutaro

3B: Chase Headley, Michael Young

OF: Jacoby Ellsbury, Ichiro, Nick Markakis, Andrew McCutchen, Nick Swisher, Shane Victorino

SP: Jaime Garcia, Phil Hughes, Hiroki Kuroda, Colby Lewis

CL: none

UNDERVALUED PLAYERS

C: JP Arencibia, John Jaso

1B: Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli

2B: Gordon Beckham, Juan Uribe

SS: JJ Hardy, Juan Uribe

3B: Danny Valencia

OF: Jose Bautista, Rajai Davis, Aubrey Huff, Carlos Lee, Carlos Quentin

SP: Madison Bumgarner, Jhoulys Chacin, RA Dickey, Jeremy Hellickson, Daniel Hudson, John Lackey, Jake Peavy

CL: Carlos Marmol, Joe Nathan

PROSPECT RANKINGS FOR 2011 SEASON

1 Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay

2 Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta

3 Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco

4 Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay

5 Domonic Brown, OF, Philadelphia

6 Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto

7 Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinnati

8 Chris Sale, LHP, Chicago White Sox

9 Jesus Montero, C, NY Yankees

10 Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City

11 Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NY Mets

12 Mark Rogers, RHP, Milwaukee

13 Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland

14 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland

15 Alex White, RHP, Cleveland

AL & NL SCARCITY

[NOTE: The following players are starting-caliber fantasy performers worth more in single-league formats because of a relative scarcity of talent at that position.]

C: Brian McCann, Buster Posey

1B: Buster Posey (worth more only because of the C situation)

2B: Brandon Phillips, Martin Prado, Dan Uggla, Chase Utley, Rickie Weeks

SS: Derek Jeter

3B: Martin Prado (worth more only because of the 2B situation), Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez

OF: Jose Bautista, Shin-Soo Choo, Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, Rajai Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Aubrey Huff, Josh Hamilton, Juan Pierre, Martin Prado (worth more only because of the 2B situation), Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, BJ Upton, Delmon Young

SP: Brett Anderson, Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, John Danks, Brian Duensing, Gio Gonzalez, Tommy Hanson, Dan Haren, Jeremy Hellickson, Felix Hernandez, Phil Hughes, John Lackey, Francisco Liriano, Brian Matusz, Brandon Morrow, Jake Peavy, David Price, Ricky Romero, CC Sabathia, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver

CL: Andrew Bailey, Neftali Feliz, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Chris Perez, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, Jose Valverde

PLAYERS WITH A WIDE RANGE OF OPINION

[NOTE: Our Experts’ Draft Board is a compilation of other draft boards from major magazines and websites in the industry. These players had a wide disparity between their highest and lowest rankings in the survey.]

C: JP Arencibia (12 to 28), John Buck (10 to 21), Ryan Doumit (13 to 33), Nick Hundley (17 to 38), Jonathan Lucroy (21 to 38), Miguel Montero (7 to 19), Miguel Olivo (15 to 26), Yadier Molina (10 to 27), John Jaso (15 to 27), AJ Pierzynski (12 to 23), Jorge Posada (8 to 19), Chris Snyder (18 to 34)

1B: Daric Barton (24 to 36), Lance Berkman (24 to 39), Billy Butler (8 to 20), Ike Davis (14 to 27), Freddie Freeman (17 to 32), Garrett Jones (18 to 32), Adam LaRoche (17 to 29), Mitch Moreland (18 to 33), Mike Napoli (14 to 29), Carlos Pena (15 to 27)

2B: Sean Rodriguez (16 to 29), Ryan Theriot (17 to 28)

SS: Yuniesky Betancourt (16 to 26), Orlando Cabrera (18 to 34), JJ Hardy (15 to 30), Ryan Theriot (16 to 26), Juan Uribe (14 to 24)

3B: Alberto Callaspo (17 to 30), Edwin Encarnacion (17 to 36), Chris Johnson (16 to 31), Chipper Jones (19 to 29), Miguel Tejada (17 to 28), Danny Valencia (14 to 33), Ty Wigginton (21 to 32)

OF: Jose Bautista (9 to 40), Carlos Beltran (38 to 58), Michael Bourn (26 to 47), Chris Coghlan (52 to 75), Rajai Davis (36 to 68), Jacoby Ellsbury (11 to 39), Corey Hart (18 to 38), Austin Jackson (21 to 62), Adam Jones (23 to 45), Jason Kubel (45 to 65), Nick Markakis (16 to 41), Nate McLouth (51 to 92), Nyjer Morgan (50 to 76), Juan Pierre (27 to 49), Alex Rios (8 to 29), Grady Sizemore (22 to 43), Denard Span (26 to 67), Michael Stanton (20 to 45), Nick Swisher (20 to 44), Jose Tabata (43 to 67)

SP: Bronson Arroyo (33 to 69), Josh Beckett (30 to 50), Trevor Cahill (25 to 72), Jhoulys Chacin (36 to 66), Johnny Cueto (39 to 64), Ryan Dempster (45 to 60), RA Dickey (53 to 100), Matt Garza (28 to 53), Gio Gonzalez (28 to 78), Jeremy Guthrie (41 to 96), Daniel Hudson (26 to 73), Phil Hughes (26 to 49), Hiroki Kuroda (31 to 55), Colby Lewis (33 to 54), Shaun Marcum (25 to 54), Brian Matusz (28 to 57), Wandy Rodriguez (24 to 51), Ricky Romero (29 to 59), Ervin Santana (48 to 74), Johan Santana (45 to 86), Tim Stauffer (64 to 85), CJ Wilson (40 to 68), Randy Wolf (58 to 107), Travis Wood (46 to 91), Carlos Zambrano (51 to 83)

CL: Jonathan Broxton (5 to 19), Matt Capps (15 to 45), Francisco Cordero (11 to 29), Brad Lidge (15 to 23), Joe Nathan (8 to 27), Jonathan Papelbon (5 to 16), Drew Storen (16 to 37)

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Fantasy Drafthelp: Baseball's Best in 2010

FantasyDrafthelp.com utilizes cutting-edge statistical methods in pursuit of fantasy sports value. Specifically, we use a statistic – our Ultimate Quantitative Baseline (UQB) – for baseball, football, basketball, hockey, golf, drag racing and NASCAR based on the concept of standard deviation from the mean. The linked explanation of the concept in Wikipedia is a bit complicated, but we include it to show the intellectual foundation of our work. What does it mean in simpler terms? Imagine, if you will, a spectrum from left to right, with zero in the middle of the spectrum. Numbers to the left of zero are negative, while numbers to the right of zero are positive. For each commonly utilized fantasy statistical category in a given sport (i.e. home runs in baseball), we calculate this standard deviation from the mean number, and then add up the numbers from all of the categories (making necessary adjustment) to find a composite score. In so doing, we measure production on a per-at bat or per-innings pitched basis in baseball or per-game or per-race basis in the other sports and NASCAR. This statistic allows you to measure proportionately how much some players help you in some categories (i.e. Carlos Pena’s home runs or Ichiro’s batting average) and exactly how much some players hurt you in some categories (i.e. Carlos Pena’s batting average or Ichiro’s home runs). While nothing that happens the previous season is a completely reliable predictor for the next season, this statistic offers the most accurate baseline possible in terms of measuring productivity.

These numbers represent the production of every player in 2010 to post a UQB number north of 300 – which is the benchmark of very good production on this system – with the exception of players with very small sample sizes. 750 is a perfect score on the UQB system for baseball.

TOP TIER

1T Jose Bautista 750

1T Miguel Cabrera 750

1T Carlos Gonzalez 750

1T Josh Hamilton 750

1T Troy Tulowitzki 750

1T Joey Votto 750

7 Albert Pujols 697

SECOND TIER

8 Justin Morneau 665

9 Brett Gardner 649

10 Kevin Youkilis 640

11 Joe Mauer 627

THIRD TIER

12 Carlos Marmol 529

13 Carl Crawford 528

14 Nelson Cruz 522

15 Alex Rodriguez 515

16 Robinson Cano 510

17 Paul Konerko 508

18 Dan Uggla 506

FOURTH TIER

19 Joakim Soria 466

20 Andrew Bailey 463

21 Heath Bell 462

22 Brian Wilson 458

FIFTH TIER

23 Jayson Werth 415

24 Hanley Ramirez 406

25 Rafael Furcal 405

26 Buster Posey 404

27 Josh Johnson 401

28 Felix Hernandez 392

29 Mark Teixeira 390

30 Rajai Davis 389

31 Ian Kinsler 388

32 John Jaso 384

33 Evan Longoria 378

34 Chase Utley 376

35 Daniel Hudson 372

36 Adam Wainwright 371 *** OUT FOR THE 2011 SEASON

37 Delmon Young 365

38 Mariano Rivera 361

39T Roy Halladay 359

39T Corey Hart 359

39T Victor Martinez 359

42T Magglio Ordonez 352

42T Juan Pierre 352

44 Dustin Pedroia 350

45 Clay Buchholz 349

46 Billy Butler 343

47T Matt Holliday 337

47T BJ Upton 337

49 Ryan Braun 334

50 Ryan Howard 325

51 Colby Rasmus 322

52T Mike Napoli 319

52T Juan Uribe 319

54T Carlos Ruiz 315

54T Rickie Weeks 315

56T Aubrey Huff 314

56T Geovany Soto 314

58 Ryan Zimmerman 312

59T Martin Prado 310

59T Drew Stubbs 310

61 David Ortiz 309

62 Adam Dunn 308

63 Carlos Quentin 307

64T Roy Oswalt 306

64T Will Venable 306

66 Omar Infante 305

67 Matt Latos 304

68 Adrian Beltre 301

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Fantasy Drafthelp: Baseball Buy Low, Sell High

BUY LOW

^ Adam Lind: The top AL OF on the 2010 draft board heading into the season has bottomed out and looks ready to resume his ’09 role as the anchor of the Toronto offense.

^ Justin Masterson: This may seem like a strange one, but once his awful performance as a starter gets him pushed back to the bullpen where he belongs, he should serve as a valuable setup man in deeper leagues.

^ Wandy Rodriguez: Aside from his win total, which should remain low pitching for that putrid team, his other numbers should improve as they have been disproportionately affected by a few poor performances.

^ Mark Teixeira: His poor start has lingered longer than usual, leading to a greater likelihood that a frustrated owner could cut bait and make you very lucky indeed.

^ Javier Vazquez: Much like Masterson, this designation is predicated on a move, although in his case it would be back to the National League where he belongs once the Yankees finish deciding that they can’t afford his gas can every fifth day.

^ Matt Wieters: The defensive strides he wanted to make so desperately – the ones that would not come as easy – have come, leaving him now to focus again on his amazing offensive upside.

SELL HIGH

^ Adrian Beltre: How strong, exactly, is your conviction that he is for real right now?

^ Doug Fister: No pedigree, no strikeouts, no reason to believe.

^ Vladimir Guerrero: With his body having been so beaten-up in recent years, do you really think he can sustain his career-best pace?

^ Livan Hernandez: Fortunately, the fade we predicted in our last installment has begun – but not in a way that dampens his still-sweet overall numbers noticeably, so you still have time.

^ Tim Hudson: The last three seasons provide a pretty good roadmap of where he’s likely to end up – which is not wildly worse than where he’s at now, but it is definitely worse, providing an opportunity to take some profit if you can move him at his present perceived value.

^ Shawn Marcum: He’s in his first year back from Tommy John surgery and looking dominant thus far, but he’s also winging it for a team playing well above its head. So there’s two reasons to play it safe.

^ Jeff Niemann: He’s not missing many bats for a pitcher purported to be a full-blown late bloomer.

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Fantasy Drafthelp: Baseball Buy Low, Sell High

BUY LOW

^ Clayton Kershaw: On the off-chance that an owner in your league is sufficiently bothered by the WHIP – pounce!

^ Justin Verlander: Relax, he’s prone to bad stretches – and this has certainly been one of them.

^ Cole Hamels: Including spring training, he’s still shown this year that he’s still got it, but the problem has been that it’s only coming in spurts.

^ Curtis Granderson: The move to New York hasn’t started on the right foot, but when he comes back healthy to a team that has already been successful this year, he’ll be in as pressure-free an environment as he could have wanted.

^ Grady Sizemore: This year, he’s healthy and in a slump, which puts him way ahead of last year.


SELL HIGH

^ Kelly Johnson: He epitomizes the phrase “unsustainable pace” as well as anyone ever has.

^ Wade LeBlanc: See Kelly Johnson.

^ Dustin Pedroia: He’s in nosebleed territory with this power level.

^ Kosuke Fukudome: Boy, the winds have really been blowing out for the amount of pop he’s shown.

^ Ivan Rodriguez: Batting average is always overrated as a positive measure for catchers (because power is the real separator), so the flashy contact level he’s demonstrating could get some owners to bite on him already.

^ Livan Hernandez: If you think he has the stuff to keep killing it like he has been, you need to surrender your fantasy owner card.

^ Carlos Silva: See Livan Hernandez.

^ Mitch Talbot: Typical hot streak by a journeyman who will look different during his next trip around the circuit.

^ Hiroki Kuroda: The ERA says “Come up for a late nightcap, Big Boy” and the WHIP says “You’re like a brother to me.”

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Fantasy Drafthelp: 2010 Baseball Draft Season Notes

FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris leveraged his experience in a competitive 12-team mixed-league draft and a 20-team auction (long-term) keeper league to pass on some tangible applications of FDH strategy. These manifestations are useful in future season, while some of the lessons may have to be applied in different manners due to different circumstances. Because the dollar values in Rick’s silent auction league run closer to an average of $16 per player, normalized player values are used here for purposes of clarity.

^ Don’t chase players at any price. In Rick’s keeper-league auction, a horrible confluence of circumstances was present: disproportionately big money available for bidding with one of the smallest talent pools in the 15-year history of the league. Rick, needing to fill in 2B and SS, desperately wanted Ben Zobrist, but Brian Roberts was thrown out first for bidding. Not wanting to put all eggs in one basket, Rick wrote down a price of $24 and that turned out to be the high bid. Good thing, since Zobrist later turned out to be out of Rick’s price range at $48. Rick hedged with Casey McGehee at $16 (the same FDH list price for a 12-team league, to say nothing of the additional distortion in this league between talent and money available!) and pieced together Marco Scutaro for $26 and Rafael Furcal for $15 (two of the only options available) in a hopelessly shallow SS pool. Chasing Zobrist, the hope going in, would have allowed for none of the depth acquisitions that Rick was able to make under tough circumstances.

^ When the optimal possibility is out of reach, choose the next best thing. This principle is closely related to the first one. Rick really wanted to pair Jonathan Broxton with a second closer (during Rick’s championship run last year, he still had Andrew Bailey and Joe Nathan on his roster – and by the way, Nathan’s expiring contract proved fortuitous indeed!). With even the low-end closers going for about $20, Rick’s aforementioned middle-infield depth could not have been achieved with any money being earmarked for ninth-inning arms. Instead, Rick purchased some “closer possibilities” for $1, including Pat Neshek (adding to Matt Guerrier, who he already owned), Brad Ziegler and Peter Moylan and piled up or retained $1 depth who could be vital to making a trade later in the season if any of them live up to their potential (Travis Hafner, Eric Chavez, Jermaine Dye and Jonny Gomes).

^ When you have serpentine draft picks close together, pass on the player you really want until the second pick if he is likely to fall through to you there. Rick and his co-owner had the tenth pick in their draft, meaning that they would have the third pick in the second round. They really wanted Troy Tulowitzki (in keeping with FDH’s extreme optimism for him this season), but they were not going to take him with the first pick under any circumstances because (knowing the tendencies of the owners in-between), they knew he would fall to them with the second pick – which he did.

^ Positional flexibility is your friend. When Kevin Youkilis surprisingly dropped to Rick and his partner in the late third round, they were able to keep their options open about where to play him. Inasmuch as 3B began to be very picked-over and 1B stayed open enough for Derek Lee (Round 8) and Carlos Pena (Round 9) to drop to them, 3B it will be for KY.

^ Zig when everybody else zags. This is the most important principle in a serpentine draft for achieving the FDH ideal of “Value.” Rick and his co-owner have made the playoffs in a competitive league ¾ of the time in a dozen years in a league where only 1/3 of the teams make the playoffs by applying the same strategy (albeit in different ways) every year. Last year, they went in knowing that FDH had classified the top level of starting pitchers as very shallow, but the next few levels as quite abundant. As such, they loaded up on hitting early, forgoing the few players labeled as “certain aces,” while still being able to pick up arms such as Justin Verlander, Chad Billingsley and Josh Johnson in the upper-middle rounds. This year, they heeded the FDH edict of not chasing #2 and #3 OF for 2010. As such, they waited to give first-round pick Matt Kemp some company in the outfield until much later when they picked up Torii Hunter (Round 12), Carlos Gonzalez (Round 13) and Jay Bruce (Round 16). The key when applying this strategy is to wait a good long time before starting to make a move at the position you have identified to be deferred – obviously, without waiting too long. Certainly, in order to make this work on the most efficient basis, practice makes perfect in terms of developing the sense of “feel” about when it is time to pounce for maximum value.

^ The UQB, as always, is your best fantasy friend. The FDH Ultimate Quantitative Baseline, the ultimate measure of what a player did the previous year on a per-AB or per-IP basis, almost always comes into play in a big way for those who utilize it. For Rick and his co-owner, that moment came in the 12th round when Torii Hunter dropped to them. Now, Hunter was listed as one of FDH’s most undervalued players, 11th on the FDH board at OF – while he was 26th on the “experts’ draft board” (a consensus draft board of other leading industry sources). The primary reason for this was the fact that he was superlative on the UQB in 2009, placing 9th at OF (remember, the statistic is measured on a per-AB basis). In 451 AB, he hit .299 with 22 HR, 90 RBI, 74 R and 18 SB. In 2008, he had exactly 100 more AB, with a very similar numerical tally: .278, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 85 R and 19 SB. The quantum leap in improvement last season is completely under the radar unless the AB factor comes into play – which it rarely does with fantasy owners. Now, as we always note, any baseline – even the ultimate one – is no promise of production for the following year, but you cannot accurately slot somebody’s value until you have a full appreciation for what they did or did not accomplish the previous season.

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Fantasy Drafthelp: Fantasy Baseball Industry Summit

Following in the path of our 2009 FDH Fantasy Football Industry Summit from last August, we convened some outside sources we really respect to be a part of a similar breakdown about the fantasy baseball landscape. Mike Harmon of FoxSports.com and Tim Heaney of KFFL joined FDH Managing Editor Rick Morris, who moderated the discussion. Answers from the participants are reproduced in summary form.


In a climate which has seen the ratio between home runs and stolen bases decrease from approximately 2:1 to 1.6:1 since baseball began taking its cursory steps towards comprehensive drug testing in 2006, is speed overvalued this season? Jacoby Ellsbury and Ichiro are pretty much consensus high picks and are indicative of a continuing infatuation with speed in the industry. Is it out of balance?

Mike: Players who can deliver dependable stolen base numbers are worthy of being valued very highly still. It’s only those who have the potential to fall off who should be regarded with caution.

Tim: The proper approach is to acquire power early, while piecing together stolen base production through the course of a draft.

Rick: Balance is the proper approach, with the ideal players being ones who can deliver some modicum of both power and speed, rather than loading up on ones who are unbalanced in one direction or another.


The middle infield and catcher positions are always the weakest ones. Name some specific notes of interest pertaining to these positions this year.

Mike: The shortstop position is shallow and is made even more so by the uncertainty surrounding Jose Reyes.

Tim: If you miss out on the elite few at each of these positions, it’s especially important not to chase the remainders this year, but rather to value shop in the mid and later rounds.

Rick: Shortstop, which appeared unusually deep a year ago, now is the most shallow position and as a result, the few guaranteed top-flight performers need to be valued proportionately higher.


Troy Tulowitzki is probably the most controversial player in the first round of the FDH draft board this season. Talk about the expectations for him.

Mike: His stolen base tally last year was unprecedented in his history and a regression to the mean is reasonable to expect – thereby depressing his value.

Tim: High value for him is completely contingent on Colorado manager Jim Tracy continuing to encourage him to be aggressive on the basepaths.

Rick: He had an amazing rookie year in ’07, had a nightmare ’08 and a brutal start to ’09 – before becoming arguably the best hitter in the game over the season’s last four months. His stolen base tally could well regress back to 12-15, but the home run total could climb near 40 inasmuch as he is still approaching his prime. In a shallow shortstop pool, he merits a late first-round selection or a $36 bid in an auction.


Last year, there were only a handful of dependable fantasy aces heading into Draft Day, but a large tier of #2 starters. How does the pool of upper-level pitchers appear this year?

Mike: There aren’t really any pitchers who are definitely worthy of a first-round selection. If pitchers are going that high in your draft, rather than chasing them there, you should seek value later.

Tim: Reclamation projects such as Cole Hamels deliver far more value than King Felix and Zack Greinke given where they will be selected in almost all drafts.

Rick: Top ace pitchers are acceptable for selection as high as the late first round given the enormous leg up that they furnish assuming that they stay healthy. Beyond that, this is more of a conventional season than last year given that the pool of #1 pitchers is of average size relative to most years and approximately the same as the supply of #2s.


Name some of the top sleepers of this season – not just deep sleepers, but any players likely to vastly outperform their average draft position.

Mike: Scott Kazmir, Jake Peavy, Gordon Beckham, Everth Cabrera and Chris Perez.

Tim: Jake Peavy, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Kazmir, Jay Bruce, Jose Lopez, Alex Rios, Jose Valverde, Homer Bailey and Luke Hochevar.

Rick: Stephen Drew, Garrett Atkins, Ricky Nolasco, Vladimir Guerrero, BJ Upton and Scott Kazmir.


In almost every draft this year, Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez are going 1-2 – albeit with Pujols seeming to go in the top spot a bit more often. Tell how you would have them ordered at the top of the draft and then state who is the third player on your board.

Mike: 1 Pujols 2 Ramirez 3 ARod

Tim: 1 Pujols 2 Ramirez 3 ARod

Rick: 1 Ramirez 2 Pujols 3 Chase Utley


This industry is the longest-established one in major sports and has just entered its second decade of the 21st century as well as being early in the second quarter-century of its development. Deliver some notes on the current state of the industry and where it is headed.

Mike: As people face ever-growing challenges on their time commitments, team co-managers are growing in popularity. Companies are expanding by leaps and bounds into various digital initiatives, with cell phone apps being the next frontier to be fully utilized. The presence on television continues to grow. In a modern world where the Internet has reduced all barriers to entry on at least a very small level, challenges of differentiation grow every day.

Tim: Information saturation is growing as the industry becomes more popular and the number of sources continues to expand as well. The increased presence for fantasy baseball on television presents new ways for consumers to receive their information. The sheer volume of online leagues is contributing to the overall sense of community on the Internet. Challenges of monetization remain.

Rick: Tim’s point about the challenges of monetization might well be the most important note about the present and future state of the industry, especially as it relates to smaller entities. Points of major innovation are at least equally likely to come from these factors and the prevalence of a free content culture on the Internet presents challenges for the industry as a whole in terms of staying vibrant and continuing to develop newer and better ways to help players win their leagues.


To amplify Tim’s point about fantasy baseball and Internet continuity, speak about how the former and the latter intersect.

Mike: Leagues contribute to what is becoming an evolving standard of community as defined by the Internet. People are meeting and in many instances becoming friends when they are separated by thousands of miles if not entire continents offline.

Tim: The fact that fantasy leagues are now largely defined by the online sector is a sign of the times, especially for the Millennial generation now coming up that may not have ever even experienced pre-Internet leagues.

Rick: In a very real old-school sense, the industry loses a bit of its soul if it moves even further away from interaction among friends and more towards finding substitutes for that dynamic online. The best and most fun leagues are the ones forged between friends, be they close or casual, and especially those that are re-convened every year. Having said that, online league management is invaluable because it allows both these leagues and the purely Internet ones to be run in an efficient and timely manner.

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Fantasy Drafthelp: Draft/Auction Day Back to Basics Advice

First and foremost, we now have online the most useful guide you could possibly want, FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2010. Here is the Table of Contents:

Page 1: Draft Philosophy Overview, Top 72 Overall
Page 2: Starting Pitcher Rankings, Draft Board Decoder, Lessons of “The Stat”
Page 3: Starting Pitcher Rankings Cont’, 2010 Don’t Be That Guy
Page 4: Starting Pitcher Rankings Cont’, Relief Pitcher Rankings, 2010 Sleepers
Page 5: Catcher Rankings, 2010 Overvalued, 2010 Undervalued, Offseason Movement Winners and Losers
Page 6: First Base Rankings, Injury Risk Management
Page 7: Second Base Rankings, Designated Hitter Rankings, 2010 Position Battle Overview
Page 8: Shortstop Rankings, 2009 Prospect Rankings, Long-Term Keeper League Prospect Rankings
Page 9: 2010 AL & NL Scarcity, 2010 Players With a Wide Range of Opinion
Page 10: Respect Mah Eligibilitah!
Page 11: Third Base Rankings, Suggested League Guidelines
Pages 12-13: Outfield Rankings
Pages 14-17: 2010 Mock Draft and Analysis
Page 18: Dollar Bin Players
Pages 19-20: Shea Stadium and Yankee Stadium Memories, Hall of Famer Andre Dawson
Pages 21-22: 2010 Topps Cards Review
Page 23: FDH Standings/Awards Predictions for 2010 MLB, FDH Minor League System Rankings
Page 24: 2010 Fantasy Overview, 2009 Legitimate Breakthroughs/Reclamation Cases

The following pieces of advice distill the high-level information that we have been preaching this winter and spring down to a few more basic notes to remember:

^ The note from Page 24 about speed being very much overvalued this year cannot be repeated nearly often enough. In 2006, we predicted that the baby steps that MLB was taking to removing steroid and HGH use from the game would result in a change in the way we viewed the relationship between home runs and stolen bases. Ever since the “steroid era” really took flight in the late ‘90s, it had been an article of faith that stolen bases were infinitely more valuable than home runs. However, over the past four seasons, our prediction has come to pass without much acknowledgement from the fantasy industry that this has been the case. The ratio of home runs to stolen bases has gone from approximately 2 to 1 to approximately 1.6 to 1. Think long and hard about that before you drink the Kool-Aid on slappys such as Jacoby Ellsbury (5th on the industry consensus draft board among outfielders in our draft guide), Ichiro (tied for 8th on the consensus draft board in the outfield) or Michael Bourn (tied for 34th on the consensus draft board in the outfield).

^ Power is especially the true differentiator at catcher and the middle infield. Joe Mauer never even came close to living up to his perennially exalted draft status until last season when he had his amazing power spike. As such, beware of players such as Erick Aybar who have demonstrated the ability to make contact but little else.

^ Another prediction that we made that has come true over the past four years regards the removal of amphetamines from the game. “Greenies” were a staple of the sport for decades and we indicated that because players could no longer use this tool to combat the “dog days of summer,” that they would find themselves struggling even more to catch up to the high heat of power pitchers. Indeed, the number of strikeouts per game has skyrocketed to well over 13 per game and hurlers who make hitters miss have never been worth more. With this in mind, pitchers such as Jair Jurjjens must be regarded in a manner more wary than their ERA and WHIP might otherwise indicate.

^ We have one player tagged with a first-round value on our board who might raise a few eyebrows with that designation: Troy Tulowitzki. He is more apt to be classified as a second or perhaps even third-round value elsewhere in the industry. It is true that he followed up his superlative 2007 rookie campaign with a banged-up disappointment in 2008 and a very rough first two months last year before breaking out big-time. Here were his numbers for the season: .297, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 101 R, 20 SB. Now examine the numbers from June 1 forward: .326, 26 HR, 73 RBI, 76 R, 15 SB. He was arguably the best hitter in baseball the last four months of the season. While it is true that his speed uptick was unprecedented for his career, his overall potential clearly paints him as a Top 10 player for the 2010 season.

^ Our “Respect Mah Eligibilitah” lists the eligibility of players in leagues with 10, 15 and 20-game eligibility rules at each position. Some players, such as Victor Martinez, have secondary eligibility at positions where the would rarely be used (first base) because they are infinitely more valuable at their main position (catcher). But there are other players who are actually worth relatively equivalent amounts at different positions, such as Gordon Beckham (second base and third base), Mark Reynolds (first base and third base) and Kevin Youkilis (first base and third base). Players with this kind of flexibility are especially valuable, because they allow you to draft one less backup in the late rounds and instead gravitate towards the best player still available. Also, because our rankings take this factor into consideration, adherence to the board will make you more likely to end up with one or more of them – such as Bill Hall’s 2006 breakout season when our board favored him because he entered the year eligible at three positions.

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Fantasy Drafthelp: Preliminary 2010 Baseball Rankings

The only comprehensive draft guide you will need for the 2010 fantasy baseball season, FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFTOLOGY 2010, will be available for free download from FDH in the very early days of March. In the meantime, here is the preliminary FDH draft board, with a Top 60 overall and honorable mention rankings by position.

1 H Ramirez SS
2 Pujols 1B
3 Utley 2B
4 Braun OF
5 Lincecum SP
6 A Rodriguez 3B
7 Tulowitzki SS
8 Kemp OF
9 Fielder 1B
10 Cano 2B
11 Mauer C
12 Grienke SP

13 J Upton OF
14 F Hernandez SP
15 Howard 1B
16 Reynolds 3B
17 Beltran OF
18 Longoria 3B
19 Carpenter SP
20 Rollins SS
21 Kinsler 2B
22 Texeira 1B
23 Sabathia SP
24 Wright 3B

25 V Martinez C/1B
26 A Gonzalez 1B
27 M Cabrera 1B
28 Sandoval 3B
29 Crawford OF
30 Haren SP
31 Wainwright SP
32 McCann C
33 A Hill 2B
34 Reyes SS
35 Jeter SS
36 Papelbon RP

37 Morneau 1B
38 Zimmerman 3B
39 J Lopez 2B
40 B Phillips 2B
41 Youkilis 1B/3B
42 D Lee 1B
43 Posada C
44 Broxton RP
45 Nathan RP
46 Wieters C
47 Ar Ramirez 3B
48 Rivera RP

49 Holliday OF
50 Markakis OF
51 Soria RP
52 F Rodriguez RP
53 Verlander SP
54 Webb SP
55 Halliday SP
56 Napoli C
57 Kershaw SP
58 Ca Lee OF
59 Pence OF
60 Sizemore OF

HONORABLE MENTION

SP
Cl Lee
Beckett
Hamels
J Santana
J Vazquez
Oswalt
Lester
J Johnson
T Hanson
Cain

W Rodriguez
Lackey
Scherzer
C Zambrano
E Jackson
Gallardo
Price
Jurrjens
Happ
Buchholz

RP
Street
Franklin
Hoffman
Jenks
Valverde
Bailey
H Bell
B Wilson
Aardsma
Francisco

C
Montero
Olivo
Soto
R Martin
B Molina
K Suzuki
Pierzynski
Doumit
J Baker
Ianetta

1B
Votto
Butler
K Morales
Dunn
Adam LaRoche
Konerko
C Pena
Berkman
Branyan
Loney

2B
Pedroia
DeRosa
Zobrist
Roberts
Uggla
Kendrick
Barmes
Prado
Polanco
Hudson

SS
Al Ramirez
S Drew
Tejada
Furcal
Bartlett
Uribe
Escobar
Andrus
Peralta
E Aybar

3B
Beckham
McGehee
I Stewart
M Young
Kouzmanoff
C Jones
Peralta
Lowell
Blake
Crede

OF
Werth
C Gonzalez
Granderson
Soriano
Bay
Lind
Ethier
BJ Upton
McCutchen
Abreu

Hawpe
Adam Jones
N Cruz
G Jones
Hamilton
M Ramirez
T Hunter
Cuddyer
Ibanez
Quentin

DH
Kubel
Thome
Matsui
Hafner
Ortiz

NOTE: Ichiro does not make the cut on this list, indicating that again this year we differ with the conventional wisdom in the fantasy baseball industry. Inasmuch as we greatly value balance across different categories, the hit that you take in home runs and RBIs is not worth the advantage you pick up in batting average, stolen bases and runs when it comes to investing a high draft pick or auction price in him.

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Fantasy Baseball Sell High Case Study

Also at The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog.

We first used this analogy two years ago when Jorge Posada was enjoying a ridiculous first half en route to his career season. In the perfect “Sell High” fantasy trade, you not only help your own team by leveraging great value for your departing player, you also hurt the opposing team by passing on to them a rapidly depreciating asset. We half-kiddingly cited the precedent of the Germans sending Lenin to Moscow in a boxcar to destroy the czar’s regime from within during World War I; ideally, the player’s inevitable regression to the mean will hurt the team acquiring the player, thus hurting their chances of blocking your path to the title.

Right now, we’ll tell you why Raul Ibanez represents another such opportunity for his owners.Through games of May 30, he had smacked a flabbergasting 17 HR in 178 AB. A full 9.6% of his AB ended up as round-trippers, signifying the hot streak to end all hot streaks. That is more than 2 ½ times his career pace.

Now, since Ibanez became a full-time player in 2002, he has averaged 576 AB in a season. What’s his career average for HR in a season? 22.

Oops.

OK, what’s his previous career high? 33.

Let’s back up a second. If he only reaches the career average of 22 this year – granted, a correction that seems pretty unlikely right now – he will average a “tidy” 1.3% of his AB resulting in HR, assuming he notches his career average of 576 AB. What if he reaches 33 HR? That would mean 4.0% of his remaining AB ending up in HR.

To put that last number in perspective, the years since 2002 have seen 3.8% of his AB result in HR. So for him to match his career HR high within a typical AB range, he would merely have to approximate the Raul Ibanez of 2002-2008.

If you dangle him right now, do you think that that is the Ibanez that your fellow owners think that they’ll be acquiring? We don’t think so either.

Granted, if this is a true career year for Ibanez, he is likely to continue to surpass his career HR pace, but that is a definite gamble. Are you sure that he’s more likely to continue to produce than somebody due for a PROGRESSION to the mean like BJ Upton? Remember, the long fantasy baseball season is all about surfing the waves that materialize over the course of a year. Take your profit in Raul Ibanez if the opportunity presents itself, benefit from the assets you receive in return and watch your trading counterpart wonder why the Ibanez from ’02-’08 is back.

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Fantasy Baseball: Sell High

Also at The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog.

^ Kendry Morales: While he had previously been given scant chances in SoCal, there is no indication whatsoever in the time since he has migrated to America that power numbers such as these should be regarded as for real.

^ Joe Mauer: He is absolutely killing the ball, albeit in a small sample size since he wasn’t healthy for the first few weeks of the season. In a sense, he is additionally the mirror image of Holliday, who was vastly underrated this year because of overreactions about ballpark effects. Mauer is perennially overrated because owners always either assume that THIS will be the year that his power materializes or (more likely) the underrate the extent to which power is THE key separator at catcher (not batting average). If you own Mauer, you have an outstanding chance to feed into the false impressions about him.

^ Russell Branyan: He is quite the tease, putting together stretches like this one every few years. If you own him, you should take your profit immediately.

^ Raul Ibanez: He is riding the biggest hot streak of his life and is due for the inevitable regression to the mean. Think about this: he’s in his first year in a new league. He’s not even done with the adjustment period yet.

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Fantasy Baseball: Buy Low

Also at The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog.

^ Jon Lester: As with any pitcher, it’s important to discern if arm problems lie at the root of a lack of success. There is absolutely no indication that this is the case with Lester, who has had a disproportionate lack of luck thus far. These factors generally even out over time, at least to some extent.

^ Magglio Ordonez: He’s making decent contact, especially as of late. With that being the case, there’s no reason to believe that his power will continue to fall off as dramatically as it has.

^ Matt Holliday: We’ll keep him on our “Buy Low” list until his production increases appreciably, not least of which because his numbers are playing into absurd stereotypes about the extent of the “Coors to Oaktown” difference. When you keep in mind that the As are almost certain to move him in his walk year since they are out of contention – and the good chance that he will be moving to a friendlier park – there is no reason other than superstition not to want a piece of him right now.

^ James Loney: This is another repeat participant on our list. Again, though, since he is almost certain to hit at least 13-15 home runs this year – at the very least – the longer he lingers in the low single digits, the more dramatic his progression to the mean will be.

^ Jimmy Rollins: Already showing some very belated signs of life, there is ample reason to believe that this superstar in his prime is once again ready to live up to his potential.

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Fantasy Baseball Pitching: 2009 vs. Recent Years

Also at The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog.

Upon hearing a friend observe that MLB pitching was down across the board this year, we decided to investigate.

Here’s the total MLB ERA through games of Saturday, May 23: 4.46.And here’s the total MLB ERA for last year: 4.32.

So … good call by our friend, right? Well, kind of. We dug a bit further. Check out the total MLB ERAs for all the other seasons this decade:

^ 4.46 in 2007
^ 4.52 in 2006
^ 4.28 in 2005
^ 4.46 in 2004^ 4.40 in 2003
^ 4.27 in 2002^ 4.41 in 2001
^ 4.76 in 2000

In looking at this, there’s an odd kind of effect where ERAs in 2008, 2005 and 2002 were lower than in surrounding seasons, a weird sort of once-every-three years phenomenon for which there is no rational explanation.

So what can be rationally discerned about this year’s numbers relative to recent seasons? It’s an article of faith, justifiably so, that hitting numbers get pumped up as the heat and accompanying humidity rise in areas such as Texas and the ‘Nati. In that light, it’s logical to expect ERAs in the swamp areas to continue to rise. Inasmuch as this ERA is basically in tune with what we’ve come to expect every two out of three years this decade, however, don’t look for it to rise much overall. This means that areas less affected by summer humidity – think places such as Seattle and Minnesota – are very likely to counteract what would otherwise cause a rise in the overall ERA.

Keep in mind, though, that we’ve only seen ¼ of the season play out thus far and that volatility could still ensue regarding the numbers. But the moral of the story seems to be that, yes, pitching is weaker than last year, but last year was an example of the occasional outlier that keeps popping up this decade.

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Fantasy Baseball: Hot Pickups and Drops

Also at The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog.

Fantasy Baseball Hot Pickups

NOTE: These players are the hottest waiver wire pickups currently in CBS Sports leagues.

^ Juan Cruz (from 8 to 40% ownership, +32): Saves are a hot commodity, no matter how short-lived the opportunity may be. Cruz has been red-hot, but he won't take the job from RP Soria long-term, but here's another but: Soria will probably be babied when he gets back this time. So, long story short, Cruz can only really help over the next few weeks.

^ Matt Palmer (from 4 to 35% ownership, +31): A classic late-bloomer, Palmer is making the most of his opportunities in the depleted Angels' rotation. There's no reason to believe that he'll be relegated to the bullpen even when the team's DL empties.

^ Shairon Martis (from 16 to 44% ownership, +28): At 5-0, with no discernable reason to believe in him before this year nor present stats that indicate that he's anything more than a product of great run support, he's a classic rearview mirror acquisition.

^ Luke Hochevar (from 20 to 46% ownership, +26): A noted elite prospect for the past couple of years, fans were desperate to believe that he would produce for real once given his latest opportunity -- and then he got shelled. Don't put your faith in him at this stage of the game.

^ Brett Cecil (from 12 to 31% ownership, +19): This youngster is off to a hot start in the bigs as part of a pitching staff that is hitting on all cylinders. With his superlative surroundings (at the moment, anyway), he is an excellent pickup at least until his first time around the league comes to an end.

^ Juan Pierre (from 35 to 52% ownership, +17): Manny's pain is the fast guy's gain. He's starting to make the most of his second chance in SoCal and steals remain a (somewhat) rare commodity. Jump on his bandwagon if you can.

^ Matt Harrison (from 8 to 25% ownership, +17): He could well be a classic late-bloomer, given his minor-league pedigree. His home ballpark will get much tougher once the North Texas humidity kicks in, but enjoy his hot streak at least for now.

^ Jorge De La Rosa (from 9 to 25% ownership, +16): He's been good, but not great, and will have every opportunity to avoid being exiled to the bullpen as part of this awful rotation. Consider him a decent lower-end option.

^ Barry Zito (from 40 to 55% ownership, +15): Ah, Sabean's Folly! He had to rally pretty well over the past several weeks just to get to his present numbers (3.89 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). There's not a lot of room for growth left there, as his most recent start proved.

^ Nick Johnson (from 27 to 41% ownership, +14): He's putting up nice numbers, but the next DL stint is only a matter of when, not if (the reason his ownership level remains so low notwithstanding his upside). If you can add him on the cheap, ride him until he breaks down again.

^ Jerry Hairston (from 3 to 17% ownership +14): He's on a tear, has speed and can play at SS and OF in most leagues. As a spare part, what's not to like?

^ Michael Cuddyer (from 21 to 34% ownership, +13): Cuddyer has had production that is decent, but nothing to write home about, so don't get carried away with him.

^ Willy Taveras (from 40 to 52% ownership, +12): It's probably not too late to get in on his hot streak, which as always features plenty of steals, but once he invariably cools off, don't presume he'll be getting at-bats every day in that volatile outfield.

^ Andrew Bailey (from 30 to 42% ownership, +12): It's a wonderful life for Bailey owners these days! Uh, sorry about that. As a likely closer-in-waiting, he's a great pickup and he is also very useful in deeper leagues that place a premium on outstanding middle relievers.

^ Eric Stults (from 16 to 28% ownership, +12): With the depth of options that will be available in LA as the year rolls on and the likelihood that he's been pitching over his head most of the way thus far, he's another apparent rearview miror pickup.

Fantasy Baseball Hot Drops

NOTE: These players are the biggest waiver wire drops currently in CBS Sports leagues.

^ Phil Hughes (from 74 to 47% ownership, -27): Dropped in 27% of leagues? We had no idea that that Steinbrenner family had that many fantasy baseball franchises among them! Granted, after a promising start he has regressed sharply, but the Yanks don't have that many candidates for an internal upgrade (nor that many potential trading chips at the moment). Unless you're in a league that doesn't allow you to reserve or bench anyone, you'd have to have your head examined to bust a hot slug in him before the Yanks do.

^ Jonathan Sanchez (from 60 to 47% ownership, -13): He's had three awful starts in a row, but had a nice run prior to that. People, a little more "steady as she goes" would do many of you a world of good with some of your young starting pitchers. The fact that FDH Managing Partner Rick Morris held onto Matt Harrison long enough to benefit from his current production proves that we practice what we preach. Now, Sanchez may well be suffering a crisis of confidence that could and should lead to severe downgrades, but he seems like a classic "panic sale" at this point.

^ Brandon Morrow (from 78 to 66% ownership, -12): Downgraded from closer? Yeah, dump him posthaste.

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Fantasy Baseball: Buy Low/Sell High/Hold Onto

Also at The FantasyDrafthelp.com Blog.

FANTASY BASEBALL BUY LOW
^ Matt Holliday: He probably went for an artificially low price in the first place (because of urban legends that he was brutal away from Coors Field) and this start is playing into false stereotypes – presenting a great opportunity if you can find a panicked owner.
^ Brandon Phillips: Buy now before he warms up along with the Ohio River humidity.
^ James Loney: He will hit no less than 15-20 home runs and now that power will be compressed into 80% of the season.
^ Francisco Liriano and Chris Young (SP): They’ve shown enough sparks this year to show that ace power is still lurking in those arms.
^ CC Sabathia: He thrives in under-the-spotlight midseason games and those are rapidly approaching.

FANTASY BASEBALL SELL HIGH
^ Aaron Hill: He’s a microcosm of the Toronto offense and as such, he can’t sustain his early level of production.
^ Jason Bartlett and Ryan Theriot: Classic early-season frauds.
^ Brandon Inge and Mike Cameron: Career-long hole-in-the-swing guys are never an early bet based purely on a hot start.
^ Raul Ibanez: In order to place him off-limits, you’d have to commit to believing that he’s going to have a career year.
^ Zack Duke: Be very cautious based on his start-and-stop career.

FANTASY BASEBALL HOLD ONTO
^ Mike Napoli: With strong per-at-bat power numbers last year, we touted him coming into 2009, so we’re going to hold to our opinion that he’s for real.
^ Justin Verlander: The worst (of ’08 and early ’09) is behind him, now reap the rewards for betting on the talent.
^ Adam Lind and Johnny Cueto: Based on pedigree, you should proceed as if they are for real.
^ Josh Johnson: The only question with him was health; behold what happens when he’s healthy!
^ Chris Volstad: Based on last year and this year’s start, he projects as no worse than a #3 SP the rest of the way.
^ Zack Greinke: You could get a lot for him – but it’s unlikely that you’ll get as much as he’ll still give you.
^ Rickie Weeks: He’s a classic potential post-hype breakout.
^ Adam Jones: He’ll reach All-Star level sometime soon; feel free to believe that it’s happening sooner than expected.

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Fantasy Baseball: Burning up the Waiver Wire

Also at The FDH Fantasy Newsletter at the FantasyDrafthelp.com blog.

Here are the players who had double-digit changes in ownership in CBS Sports leagues last week:

^ Marco Scutaro: 42% to 76%, +34 – Picking him up now is almost the epitome of rear-view mirror thinking

^ Endy Chavez: 6% to 23%, +17 – This is a good move for OF depth, but not much more.

^ Eric Stults: 8% to 20%, +12 – It’s a good short-term move, but he’ll struggle to keep his job over time.

^ Bradley Bergeson: 0% to 10%, +10 – He’s excellent rotation depth, since the Os need pitching and he’s a good prospect but he’s not one of the great ones still in the minors who they’re afraid to bring up too soon – so he’ll have a decently long leash.

^ Zack Miner: 17% to 6%, -11 – He should continue to get opportunities in Detroit given the putrid state of their pitching, but his upside isn’t that high.

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Fantasy Baseball: Buy Low

Also at The FDH Fantasy Newsletter at the FantasyDrafthelp.com blog.

NOTE: You’ll notice that we aren’t listing three high-profile pitchers in this mix: Fausto Carmona, Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander. Not everyone who is off to a slow start is a good candidate for this list. There appear to be unresolved issues with these pitchers at this point, and while all looked like decent bets to put the demons of ’08 behind them, it would be irresponsible to assume that they merit paying a high or even moderate price to acquire right now. Of course, as always our advice is not delivered in a vacuum, so if somebody in your league is conducting an absolute fire sale on any of these three, then by all means take a flyer on them.

^ Mark DeRosa: Given his tri-eligibility in 20-game leagues this year, he was probably much cheaper than he should have been in many drafts – so owners disgusted by his slow start may not be as attached to him since he may not have cost that much.

^ Adrian Beltre: He generally picks up as the season progresses, so if an owner in your league is ready to bust a cap in him, be in the right place at the right time.

^ JJ Hardy: He was pretty streaky last year as well, but he produced at a super-high level when hot. Buy him now at a low ebb if you can and just wait for him to carry your team when he gets hot.

^ Jake Peavy: Until and unless word surfaces about arm issues, don’t worry about this money pitcher. Throughout his career, he has had a few ugly starts interspersed here and there, so don’t sweat this mediocre start.

^ Jeremy Guthrie: He’s another pitcher who can be a bit up-and-down, so this point in time would be perfect for acquiring his services.

^ Randy Johnson: He’s shown enough this year, in an extreme pitcher’s park, to at least merit consideration as an end-of-the-rotation starter should he be available in your league.

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